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Experts Forecast Top Ten Energy Innovations For 2010
Untitled Document
Energy is a hot commodity these days. From yo-yo gas prices to predictions
of electricity blackouts and the endless speculation on how deregulation will
change the energy market, it's hard to ignore this topic. While we may not be
zipping about from planet to planet and living the lifestyle of the Jetsons,
we're in for some major changes during the next 10 years.
Oil fields could be supplemented by fuel farms and gas stations will morph
into energy stations. We'll pay for electricity in a fashion similar to the
way we pay shifting rates for long distance service. Our household habits will
likely shift as people realize it's more economical to run the dishwasher after
midnight rather than after dinner.
"We're on the cusp of some major, fundamental changes in energy. In fact, it's
already starting," said Dr. Steve Millett, Thought Leader and manager of Battelle's
forecasts.
This is just one of the predictions made by a panel of energy experts from
Battelle and the national laboratories that it manages and co-manages for the
U.S. Department of Energy (including Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the National
Renewable Energy Laboratory). The drivers behind the predicted energy innovations
include economics, R&D, worldwide environmental regulation, consumer behavior
and preferences, national energy policy, and liability and legal issues.
The expert focus group from Battelle, and the aforementioned labs, has identified
the Top Ten most economically impactful energy innovations by the year 2010.
They include:
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A shifting energy industry structure: substantial inno
vations in the energy industry and its energy technologies are occurring.
Deregulation of the natural gas and electric utilities will continue, resulting
in more competition and more mergers. Small, independ ent utilities will
decline and be swept up into the emerging SuperUtilities. Oil companies
will become energy companies, com peting in both the mobile and stationary
energy mar kets. New players, such as automobile companies, may emerge as
formidable influences in the energy industry. "The convergence of the electric,
gas, telecommunications and water industries likely will result in one-stop
shop ping," said Henry Gialone, VP and General Manager of Energy Products
at Battelle. |
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Hybrid Vehicles: With $2 a gallon gas prices still
fresh in the minds of consumers, the idea of hybrid cars doesn't sound so
bad. Mileage of seventy-miles- per-gallon will create a lot of converts.
The first gen eration of these vehicles is already here in a sport two-seater
from Honda. Hybrid vehicles use small er, more efficient internal combustion
engines and use power from electric batteries for an extra boost during
acceleration. "U.S. automakers have pro duced a next-generation of hybrid
concept cars that will pave the way to 80 mpg, five-passenger sedans," said
Tony Schaffhauser of Oak Ridge National Laboratory. However, while making
progress in the next 10 years, full transition may require decades. |
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Smart Energy Management Systems: In the way that computers
and the Internet are radi cally changing our econo my today, they'll change
energy systems even more so in the future. Computers, the Internet and Global
Positioning Systems will increase the efficiency of transportation. They'll
reduce congestion and traffic delays and be used in heating, air condi tioning,
household appli ances and business equip ment. They also will play vital
roles in efficiency of energy production and dis tribution systems such
as pipelines, refineries, power plants and transmission lines. |
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Distributed Power Generation: Some experts are saying
the current national power grid may not be able to meet sky rocketing demand.
Power grids of this scale are on the way out. Major black outs due to storms
and overloading of the grid will become a thing of the past. "People and
busi nesses are demanding more reliable power sources," said Bobi Garrett,
from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo. "The economic
cost of a power disruption in information-driven busi ness like finance
and e- commerce, is extremely high," she said. Power may be generated locally
for neighborhoods and individual residences and businesses. This will be
done via micro-turbines, internal combustion engines and fuel cells. There
will be an increased use of natural gas because it's clean, cheap and available. |
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Fuel cells: There has been a lot of progress in fuel
cell technology over the past 10 years, but much more needs to hap pen over
the coming decade. Fuel cells will become increasingly popu lar for transportation
and for portable and stationary power generation over the next decade. "These
sys tems will provide power at competitive rates while drastically reducing
the impact of power genera tion on the environment," said Don McConnell,
Associate Lab Director for Energy Science and Technology at Pacific Northwest
National Laboratory. Before being accepted by the public, fuel cells must
be made smaller and cheaper. |
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Gas to Liquid Conversion: Scientists predict the development
of chemical engineering processes to transform hydrocarbon compounds from
gases to liquids. This will permit more flexible use and stor age of fuels.
One example is the conversion of natural gas to diesel fuel for trans portation.
"Gas to liquids technology offers an excit ing, economically attractive
opportunity to convert nat ural gas from remote loca tions ? which otherwise
would be wasted ? into easily transported and inherently clean fuel," said
Denny Stephens, Senior Research Scientist for Battelle's Energy Products. |
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Advanced Batteries: Batteries will continue a 20-year
trend of advance ments into the next decade. These next-gener ation batteries
will be based on lithium polymer technology and have about three times as
much ener gy capability as those cur rently on the market. These developments
will play a more crucial role as we make the transition to hybrid and electric
vehi cles. Consumers also will see better batteries for lap top computers
and cell phones. |
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Energy farms: The use of bio-engineered crops for fuels
will be hurried along by the genetic revolution that permits cultivation
of crops to produce fuels such as ethanol. "We will grow gasoline, so to
speak, to lessen our dependence on imported oil," Millett said. "With advances
in DNA engi neering, we will be able to grow energy as well as food crops.
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Solar Energy: We've heard about this for a long time
and it's still hanging tough. That's because it's consid ered the ultimate
sustain able energy form. It's also difficult to capture and store large
quantities in a cost-effective manner. But Battelle experts see sub stantial
improvements over the next decade." Advancements have been made using solar
energy for the heating and cooling of buildings, and recent advances in
the solar cell efficiency hold the promise of make widespread ter restrial
application a reali ty," said NREL's Bobi Garrett. Progress is continually
being made in the development of efficient photovoltaic cells. |
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Mining: Geologists have discovered rich deposits of
frozen natural gas crystals on the ocean bottom. "Tapping this reserve
would be a quantum leap in our ability to provide energy for the future.
Although some new government programs are exploring recovery methods and
associated remifications, there haven't been any commercial attempts to
retrieve this vast reserve," Gary Brawley, Program Manager in Battelle's
Equipment Development and Mechanical Systems. |
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