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Homeland Security: How Far Have We Come?

It has been over five years since the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington D.C., shook America to its core and ushered in a new era of civil defense against an unseen enemy. Billions of dollars have been spent, and thousands of American soldiers have died fighting in a war without borders, against an enemy without a nation, for a goal yet to be defined by national leaders.

In those past five years, some terror attacks have occurred in the United States. But these attacks could only be characterized as random incidents committed by one or two gunmen unaffiliated with any organized terrorist group. Thus, this half-decade of relative calm within our borders has prompted some to question whether there actually exists a viable foreign terror threat to the country.

Writing in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs, John Mueller, a Political Science Professor at Ohio State University, went so far as to characterize the idea of a viable and capable terrorist enemy as a “myth”. In his essay entitled: “Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?: The Myth of the Omnipresent Enemy”, Mueller wrote that “The massive and expensive homeland security apparatus erected since 9/11 may be persecuting some, spying on many, inconveniencing most, and taxing all to defend the United States against an enemy that scarcely exists”.

Mueller isn’t alone in thinking that the U.S. reaction to 9/11 may be overblown. Other journalists, pundits, and researchers have questioned the massive commitment of resources spent on defense initiatives over the past five years. As each day passes, it seems that more Americans are voicing concern that money taken from social programs, education, and healthcare has been all but wasted on homeland security initiatives that ultimately will never be used.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff speaks during a news conference in Washington.

Proponents of continued homeland security spending tell us that we have been down this road before. In the first years of World War I, the conflict seemed to settle into a quiet stalemate. Journalists came to refer to the war as “The Phony War”. But behind the scenes, opponents were strategizing and consolidating resources. Before it was over, what was called a phony war would claim the lives of millions and devastate much of the European continent. These same proponents are also quick to point out that organized foreign terrorists – and al-Qaida in particular - are methodical in their planning and exercise patience when it comes to planning attacks. It is only a matter of time they say, before a major attack is mounted inside the United States.

The Chief Engineer set out to learn the facts and present them to our readers in a manner that would allow them to decide for themselves whether the U.S. is on the right course in combating the threat of terrorism. We consulted with numerous experts and reviewed scores of documents including recently declassified national intelligence estimates. What follows here, is our finding:

According to the MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base, there was a total of 5,459 “significant terrorist incidents” reported in all of 2006. Used here, the word “significant” means that fatalities or injuries resulted from the incident. Of that total terror number, 17,337 people were injured and 10,107 people were killed in these attacks.

By far the most attacks (3,826) occurred in the Middle East - predominantly in Iraq. South Asia tallied the next highest number of attacks (1,027); followed by Southeast Asia (194); and Latin America and the Caribbean region (144). Western and Eastern Europe reported a combined total of 211 attacks with the majority reported in Western European countries. The United States had one reported incident, which claimed one life and five injuries.

Clearly, the database at MIPT illustrates that the world is still a very dangerous place, with active terrorist groups willing and able to carry out attacks on innocent civilians as well as government and military targets.

The British BBC produced an interesting chart demonstrating that since 9/11, the number of significant terrorist attacks has steadily increased in number, even though the total number of terrorist attacks, which peaked in 2004, recorded a fall back in 2005. These numbers may indicate that worldwide, terrorist groups have become increasingly more organized in their methods, scaling back on random attacks in favor of better planned, well executed attacks.

Recently, portions of the National Intelligence Estimate report leaked to the press indicated that U.S. officials believed the war in Iraq has served to galvanize terror groups, increasing the threat to the U.S. and their allies. In the declassified section of the report, the authors state:

“ Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic location.”

“ If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide”.

The report goes on to state that terrorist groups are actively seeking chemical, biological and radiological weapons. Obviously, such weapons pose the greatest degree of risk to the U.S. and our allies.

As our research progressed, we encountered what could only be termed as a “Catch 22” scenario, which seemed to play into the hands of those who object to spending on homeland security. If law enforcement and intelligence services are successful in thwarting a terror incident, then no incident is ever reported. It makes it easier for someone to argue that we spend to much on security when you don’t count those threats that were successfully stopped. In addition, because much of the information used by intelligence agencies to break apart terror plots is, by its very nature, secret – the public will never learn the full nature of the effort mounted by U.S. intelligence and law enforcement to prevent the attack.

A case in point, occurring during 2006, involved a very well-planned terror plot to blow up American airliners departing from Western European airports. This plot was broken up, and 21 people were arrested. The plot, uncovered by British and U.S. intelligence and law enforcement, included the use of a very sophisticated liquid explosive, and was targeted against three major U.S. air carriers. When carefully considered, it is only because security forces were successful in stopping this attack that critics can state that “no significant terrorism has occurred since 9/11”. From this statement alone, do most critics argue that the expense of mounting anti-terror and homeland security operations is “wasted”.

Another report reviewed by the Chief Engineer was the CRS Report for Congress. In the Summary portion of this report the author states:

“ Emerging trends that may require enhanced policy focus are (1) attacks that aim to cause economic damage such as attacks on transportation infrastructure, tourism, and oil installations; (2) the growing number of unattributed terrorist attacks; and, (3) the growing power and influence of radical Islamist political parties in foreign nations…”

This prediction, if correct, clearly indicates that the threat to facilities operated by Chief Engineers has not decreased, but is actually increasing as organized terror groups redefine their tactics in order to maximize economic disruption resulting from their attacks.

Our review of anti-terror measures undertaken by the U.S. since 9/11 did leave us dismayed at the lack of progress to secure key facilities. But we also noted significant improvement in efforts to secure our airports. Drawing on a report prepared by Stephen E. Flynn for the Council on Foreign Relations, the author provided a report card of sorts, accessing the level of security put in place for key infrastructure.

Under the heading of Port Security, the author gave the Department a D+ grade, indicating that although a framework for a security initiative has been laid out, no real progress has yet to occur in securing our national ports from the threat of terror attacks.

Under Nuclear Plant Security, the author gave a grade of B to B+, indicating steady advances in protecting such plants from attack.

The author assigned a grade of D- to F for Chemical Plant Security. The author pointed out that only $10 million has been allocated to the DHS to build a security network that would protect the thousands of such plants throughout the U.S. This was the lowest grade assigned in all of the areas the author addressed.

In the end, the Chief Engineer’s review of available documents and reports indicate that a real terror threat remains, targeting U.S. facilities and citizens both at home and abroad. The primary target of desire for foreign terror groups remains areas within the continental U.S. Lacking opportunity to strike at such targets, foreign terrorists will seek out targets of opportunity abroad that have a direct link to U.S. interests or those of our close allies.

Clearly, since 9/11, the U.S. has taken major steps that have helped protect citizens from the threat of global terror. Realistically, even the U.S. does not have the resources available to protect every facility against an attack carried out by a well-trained group. But every facility in the U.S. does have personnel who can, through training and methods of communication, keep their own facility relatively safe from such attack. It would not be realistic to believe that DHS can furnish the manpower to protect every plant or building. But it is not unreasonable to expect DHS to recognize the potential of utilizing the Chief Engineer and other facility engineering personnel to be trained to identify unusual devices or suspicious individuals who may be plotting an attack against such a facility.

Already groups and organizations such as the International Union of Operating Engineers have put such training in place to great effect. Commercial facilities and the nation’s industrial and petrochemical plants are safer now than they were five years ago, thanks to the efforts and forward thinking of the IUOE and its leadership. But more can be obtained with a recognition that the key to protecting US facilities lies within those facilities. Financing of additional training and a method of communication between facility operators and local law enforcement is still an idea that needs to turn into action.

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